Monday, November 16, 2009

Going for it on 4th-and-2 from your own 29 with a 6-point lead: Always a good decision


In case you haven't heard, the Patriots suffered an epic 35-34 loss to the Colts Sunday night. After blowing a 24-7 lead and letting the game get to 34-28, the Patriots found to their disappointment that there was still time left on the clock. Trying to gain a first-down and run out the clock, Bill Belichick (at left) made a gutsy call and went for it -- on the Patriots' own 29. It didn't work, and the Peyton-to-Wayne Train won the game with seconds left. Game over -- ouch.

But the real lesson here is not that Belichick is a bad coach -- or even made the wrong call. Coach B, who has stood by his decision, felt his defense wouldn't be able to stop the Colts if they kicked it away, given the significant amount of time left on the clock. The fact that the Colts scored after the turnover on downs probably supports this point.

Rather, what we know after Sunday night's game is that there are downsides -- even in late-game situations -- to being a pass-focused team. The Pats were unstoppable in the air all game, but facing a 4th-and-2 situation, couldn't convert. The big what-if question after last night is not what if Kevin Faulk hadn't bobbled the ball before being tackled, but what if the Patriots had taken DeAngelo Williams, Maurice Jones-Drew, or Joseph Addai instead of Laurence Maroney in the 2006 NFL draft.

(Pats fans can still rest easy knowing that the blue-and-whites are still a lock to win the pathetic potato-sack race that is this year's AFC East.)

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